Mercury vs. Sky prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Monday's WNBA game [8/3/2026]
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky predictions for WNBA Monday.
The Chicago Sky will square off with the Phoenix Mercury, in what is expected to be a close WNBA game, at Wintrust Arena on Monday, beginning at 9:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model gives the Mercury a slight edge with a 50.2% win probability over the Sky.
The Sky, who have star players such as Sydney Taylor, Kamilla Cardoso and Natasha Cloud, will face off against the Mercury, whose lineup includes Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Kelsey Plum.
This article offers further insights into Monday's Mercury vs. Sky matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Sky prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Mercury a 50.2% chance of beating the Sky.
According to our model, the Sky (+1.5) have a 55.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 178.5-point over/under has a 69.8% chance of staying under,.
Mercury vs. Sky odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mercury | Sky |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-108) | +1.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | -113 | +111 |
| Total | o178.5 (-104) | u178.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Sky picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sky +1.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Sky | +111 |
| Total | Under 178.5 | +100 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Sky player props
Looking for Mercury vs. Sky WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Wintrust Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 22 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while Sydney Taylor is projected to have 22 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sky.
For early game action, the data identifies Kahleah Copper as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 22 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 16 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 47 |
| Kelsey Plum | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 27 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
Sky prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sky:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Taylor | 22 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 33 |
| Kamilla Cardoso | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 32 |
| Natasha Cloud | 12 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 28 |
| D. Carrington | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Aicha Coulibaly | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 |
Mercury vs. Sky game-day updates and essential details
Monday's game between the Sky and Mercury at Wintrust Arena is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Chicago Sky
- Date: Monday, August 3, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Wintrust Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 50.2% win probability, will likely beat the Sky in Monday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
