Mercury vs. Mystics prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [8/9/2026]
Get Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics predictions for WNBA Sunday.
WNBA action continues on Sunday at 3:00 PM ET as the Phoenix Mercury lock horns with the Washington Mystics at CareFirst Arena.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Mystics as the most likely winner in this Mercury vs. Mystics prediction.
The Mystics, led by Sonia Citron, Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen, will face off against the Mercury, featuring Kahleah Copper, Kelsey Plum and Alyssa Thomas.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mercury vs. Mystics prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Mystics a 63.8% chance of defeating the Mercury.
According to our model, the Mystics (-1.5) have a 58.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 168.5 points has a 59.0% chance of going over,.
Mercury vs. Mystics odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Mystics -1.5 @ +100 via Novig
- Moneyline: Mystics @ -106 via Novig
- Total: Over 168.5 @ -106 via Novig
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mercury vs. Mystics picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Mystics -1.5 @ +100 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Mystics @ -106 via Novig
- Total: Over 168.5 @ -106 via Novig According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mystics to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mercury vs. Mystics player props
WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on the Phoenix vs. Washington game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at CareFirst Arena.
Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 21 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Sonia Citron is projected to have 16 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mystics.
For early game action, the data identifies Shakira Austin as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mercury prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 21 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 34 |
| Kelsey Plum | 17 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 31 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 42 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 29 |
| Natasha Mack | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
Mystics prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mystics:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonia Citron | 16 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Shakira Austin | 16 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 37 |
| Kiki Iriafen | 14 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 32 |
| Cotie McMahon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| M. Onyenwere | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
Mercury vs. Mystics game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Mystics and Mercury at CareFirst Arena is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics
- Date: Sunday, August 9, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: CareFirst Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Mystics, with a 63.8% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
