WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, July 30, 2026
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/30.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, July 30, 2026—are live with the Tempo's Marina Mabrey projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Mabrey, A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 30, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 16.4% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.7% |
| Breanna Stewart (Liberty) | 15.2% |
| Sydney Taylor (Sky) | 14.3% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 14.0% |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun) | 13.0% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 12.9% |
| Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty) | 12.9% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 11.9% |
| Napheesa Collier (Lynx) | 11.9% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.5% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 11.1% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 11.0% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 10.5% |
| Jonquel Jones (Liberty) | 10.2% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 9.3% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 9.0% |
| Courtney Vandersloot (Sky) | 8.9% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 8.6% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 8.4% |
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 8.0% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 7.6% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun) | 7.1% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.9% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.8% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 6.6% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 6.2% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.5% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 4.9% |
| Rebecca Allen (Liberty) | 3.7% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 30, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Taylor | Sky | 3.9% | +860 | 14.3% |
| NaLyssa Smith | Aces | 3.4% | +1200 | 11.1% |
| Kayla McBride | Lynx | 3.3% | +1200 | 11.0% |
| Leila Lacan | Sun | 2.1% | +830 | 12.9% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 1.5% | +900 | 11.5% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker | Sun | 1.2% | +1600 | 7.1% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 0.7% | +1100 | 9.0% |
| Pauline Astier | Liberty | 0.3% | +1200 | 8.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 7/30.
Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket
For Thursday, July 30, 2026, Marina Mabrey, A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart lead our first basket projections, while Sydney Taylor shapes as the strongest value play at +860. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
